Agreed 100% with last paragraph, my thesis exactly. Just begs the question why Irrational Analysis bought in, I don't understand the 30x ARR and even then gross margins are trash compared to even non bottleneck semis
The play here is that the numbers are way too low, and that they're going to vastly exceed their own guidance and eventually get 80% gross margins, like memory, just because of how scarce it is. Which absolutely could happen, but the price already assumes a level of that happening, and you need to overshoot it. That's the bet, and it's not a bet that I'm making as of right now, maybe at a lower price.
Agreed 100% with last paragraph, my thesis exactly. Just begs the question why Irrational Analysis bought in, I don't understand the 30x ARR and even then gross margins are trash compared to even non bottleneck semis
The play here is that the numbers are way too low, and that they're going to vastly exceed their own guidance and eventually get 80% gross margins, like memory, just because of how scarce it is. Which absolutely could happen, but the price already assumes a level of that happening, and you need to overshoot it. That's the bet, and it's not a bet that I'm making as of right now, maybe at a lower price.
My main question is: is the bottleneck in InP as durable as say Aixtron in semicap? I wish to read more about this topic