What is an AXTI (and why is it up 80x in 12 months)
B O T T L E N E C K
AXTI is a funny company.
They are worth over seven or eight billion dollars once you account for the dilution. Currently, they’re at about 100 million in revenue run rate. Lol.
But okay okay, let’s forget about any and all numbers for a second.
What if I told you that there is one chemical compound that is needed for all of optics? That there is no way around it, and that it would scale exponentially once scale-up CPO hits, and you will need big massive lasers made out of this compound stuffed deeper and deeper inside of a rack.
And there’s one company that holds a substantial global share of this compound and has tons of brownfield capacity available and can convert capacity from another compound to this compound and can build greenfield once its brownfield capacity is saturated and is basically doubling capacity year over year.
Interested? That’s what I thought.
And that’s what the market also thinks too, as they have returned a cool 7x since the start of this year.
And their 12-month return?
So yeah, they confuse the shit out of me forever, but it is finally time to look at what they actually do. Funny enough, the fact that they have kept running while the general sentiment on X and Substack was extreme skepticism and bearishness probably means that the bull case is underrated. This company makes SNDK look like a stock you would buy after reading The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham.
Deep coverage on blue chips refers to LITE, BE, INTC, big memory vendors, etc.
Thematic work includes:
industry/tech overviews
investment maps comparing all of the players in an industry
economic style thinking and theory for AI infra
macro
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Introduction
The agenda for today is simple. We will first talk about the fundamentals of the company and then review their most recent earnings call to see how they’re doing.