State of Nvidia (+ Earnings Preview)
Me defending my reckless NVDA long
Opinions are my own and do not represent past, present, and/or future employers. All content is based on public information and independent research. This newsletter is not financial advice, and readers should always do their own research before investing in any security. I am invested in the semiconductor industry. As of the date of this publication, I may hold long or short positions in the securities discussed in this article.
If the world of semis was real life, GTC is the equivalent of the Superbowl and Nvidia earnings are the equivalent of Election Night.
The election that determines if it’s the hypemaxxing bulls or the bubblemaxxing bears who will get voted in as President of the Narrative for the next three months.
Outline
Valuation
Supply/Demand Good News
TSMC Capex Raise & CoWoS Allocation
Hyperscaler Blowout Capex
Meta + Nvidia Deal
Technical Good News
Google Ghosted the MLPerf
SemiAnalysis InferenceX: NVL72 Absolute Framemogging
The Networking Holy Grail: Die-to-Die Clock Forwarding Over Optics Enables Datacenter-Sized GPUs
Earnings Estimates
Valuation
Jensen is absolutely fucking killing it.
Yet the stock has inexplicitly traded flat for the past 6 months. Truly inexplicably. There was a mountain of good news, yet the stock be choppin’, but we all know this. It’s like an “emperor has no clothes” situation.
So how cheap is it? I have a very generic buyside model.