Intel Earnings Review Q1 2026
CPUs and Agentic AI, Culture, 18A Yields, 14A Progress and Capex, Advanced Packaging, DCAI Product Roadmap, CCG Product Roadmap, ASIC Business, and The Path to >$1 Trillion
Let’s talk headline first! I am writing this pre-call so raw dogging it.
Revenue and guide are INCREDIBLE. Beating by 10%. Clearly tons of CPU price hikes happening already. As I discussed in my timely CPU article (which I will now be heavily victory lapping) we are in the very very early stages of the CPU S-curve as they were never needed before agentic AI. A few months of Claude Code and OpenClaw did this!
GM beat their prior guide by 650bps. This is pretty unholy.
I genuinely do not know why their GMs guided down without the call.
(Note from Jason after the call: Now I know. Its actually good news)
CPU price hikes are everywhere, both consumer AND AI. They are enough to offset whatever unit loss is happening due to this and memory murdering the BOM, apparently.
Here is sort of the recurring theme of Intel: Operating leverage. A big but not unheard-of beat on revenue (10%) turns into operating income that is double what was projected. Intel’s chart looks scary but remember, they used to be unprofitable and trading at 1-2x revenue!
A graph from the early days of my Substack:
This is why I like low revenue multiples and low profitability for asymmetric longs. One day they are unprofitable and the next earnings appear from thin air and start compounding at triple digits and everyone acts surprised.
Price Action
Intel surges 20% after hours and breaks its all time high, a record last set in 2000 during the dot-com bubble.
This is the semiconductor industry’s greatest comeback story.
Lip-Bu dropped the coldest quote in Intel history:
“A year ago, the conversation about Intel Corporation was about whether we could survive. Today, it is about how quickly we can add manufacturing capacity and scale our supply to meet enormous demand for our products.”
- Lip-Bu Tan, CEO, Intel Corporation
The Call
Going forward, my earnings call analysis will be reserved for the paid tier only.
Intel’s earnings call today was the most confident I have ever heard the management team in a long time. We will explore the development of 8 different themes ranging from the surprising positive developments in 18A yields to management’s newfound bullishness on CPUs for agentic AI. Finally, I will share my Intel model for the first time, including a comprehensive revenue build (splitting CCG, DCAI, external 18A-P revenue, 14A revenue, advanced packaging, and ASIC), income statement/EPS, and DCF. We will explore the path to a one trillion market cap.
Contents
CPUs and Agentic AI
Culture
18A Yields
14A Progress and Capex
Advanced Packaging
DCAI Product Roadmap
CCG Product Roadmap
ASIC Business
The Model (and Path to >$1 Trillion)
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