Aixtron | Earnings Review: Incoming Tsunami of Revisions
Laser factories are buying lots of laser machines!!!
Opinions are my own and do not represent past, present, and/or future employers. All content is based on public information and independent research. This newsletter is not financial advice, and readers should always do their own research before investing in any security. I am invested in the semiconductor industry. As of the date of this publication, I may hold long or short positions in the securities discussed in this article.
Earnings Preview
The Print
Actual Q4 results were very, very strong. Revenue came in way above consensus, even with weaker GMs. I don’t think this matters too much though.
The real leading indicator is backlog, and here we got exactly what we wanted. Orders €170M vs cons €130-137M (+25%). Seems like Lumentum and friends needed extra capacity, just like I predicted…
Now for the 2026 full year guide. Revenue missed by 10-20M, but it is perfectly in line with my model lmao.
Nothing much to report on in terms of the margins.
Also, FCF swung to +€182M from -€72M YoY. R&D also much lower than expected. I am not in the “cash is king” crowd, but you gotta appreciate this FCF generation.
Price Action
Today we continue our journey to a €50+ stock.
For my fellow fundamental analysts, a little lesson on technical analysis and price action.
NEVER TRADE AN EARNINGS CALL ON THE INITIAL PA.
Nobody can evaluate if a quarter was bad or good with only the PR and no call in seconds after it drops. There are no humans trading then. It’s all Jane Street bots and algorithms parsing natural language n shit.
Especially for a small cap low float stock like Aixtron, these algos can move the price very significantly. Your best bet is to ignore the price completely for the time in between the print and the call.
The Call
Optoelectronics
Before we actually talk about opto, let me level set you on what the sell-side thought about the scale of the opto opportunity, even after a bunch of them upgraded to buy.